Essay summary · English
Technological power arises where leaving becomes expensive for others.
A summary of my essay „Das neue Zeitalter der Technologiemächte" (The New Age of Technology Powers, August 2026, German). A simple model for entrepreneurs, investors and decision-makers who have to align capital and strategy for the next ten years.
01 — The starting question
Before I can talk about war, I need to understand what kind of powers these countries are.
The essay began with a different question: must the rivalry between the United States and China end in war? The longer I worked on it, the clearer it became that before talking about war, I need to understand what kind of powers these two countries are, what distinguishes them and why their power lasts for different lengths of time.
I have lived in the US as a pupil and student, and have travelled to China regularly since 2018. I work in Europe, which has excellent research, companies and capital, but too rarely turns them into technological power of its own.
My central thesis: technological power arises where others can only replace a capability at high cost, over a long time, or at great strategic risk.
02 — The model: four variables
Four ways to measure technological power.
Variable 1 · the practical measure of power
Exit costs
How expensive, slow or risky it is for others to replace a capability. The higher the exit costs, the greater the room for manoeuvre.
Variable 2 · durability over visibility
Durability
How long a bottleneck lasts. The durability of a chokepoint matters more than its visibility today.
Variable 3 · America's real strength
Renewal power
The ability to lead again in the next technology wave.
Variable 4 · through law, alliances and the dollar
Network power
The ability to connect partners' capabilities strategically without owning them.
03 — Ten findings for decision-makers
What the model means in practice.
- Invention, scaling, embeddingTechnological power comes from all three together — only combined do they create capabilities that are hard to replace.
- Exit costs are a practical measure of powerThe more expensive the replacement, the greater the room for manoeuvre.
- Durability over visibilityThe durability of a bottleneck matters more than its visibility today.
- America's renewal powerIts particular strength is the power of renewal across several technology waves.
- China's mobilisationEspecially strong in mobilisation, industrial scaling, cost reduction and rapid application.
- A mutual raceThe US and China drive each other forward and make technological dependencies visible.
- Network powerLets the US connect partners' capabilities strategically without owning them.
- Capital is stored possibilityWhoever can finance many futures increases the chance of new positions of power.
- Europe's unfinished combinationEurope has potential, but does not yet combine capital, research, infrastructure and demand consistently enough.
- No need for autarkyEurope does not need autarky. It needs capabilities of its own that would be expensive for others to replace.
04 — Forecast to 2035
Coexistence, not succession.
The United States remains the leading technology power. China does not replace it but establishes itself as a lasting second pole. Coexistence is more likely than succession.
05 — What this means for Europe
Europe does not have a knowledge problem. It has an execution problem.
My answer is uncomfortable for Europe. The US bets through entrepreneurs, capital markets and a state that carries early risk. China mobilises political priority, demand and industrial scale. Europe often discusses and regulates before it has built its own capabilities.
On stage
Bring this to your stage.
This model is the basis of my keynote „The AI power race: US, China and Europe".